Monday, June 30, 2014

Depending on How We Define "Recovery," the US Economy Has Already Recovered, May Recover Soon, or May Never Do So

According to the latest public opinion poll from CNNMoney, 61 percent of Americans think it will this slideshow for charts and analysis of the latest GDP revisions.)
take three more years for the U.S. economy to recover fully from the Great Recession. Only 3 percent think that it has already recovered, while 16 percent think it will never recover. And that was before last week’s news from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which revised growth for the first quarter of 2014 downward to minus 2.9 percent. (See

Are the opinions of those who responded to the poll reasonable? How do their views stack up against those of professional economists?

What is a “recovery”?

The logical way to start this post would be to cite an official definition of “economic recovery,” but it turns out there isn’t one.  The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is the group that calls the economy’s cyclical turning points, does not use the term “recovery” at all. In the committee’s words, “a recession is a period between a peak and a trough, and an expansion is a period between a trough and a peak.” That leaves no room anywhere for “recovery.” >>>Read more
According to the latest public opinion poll from CNNMoney, 61 percent of Americans think it will take three more years for the U.S. economy to recover fully from the Great Recession. Only 3 percent think that it has already recovered, while 16 percent think it will never recover. And that was before last week’s news from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which revised growth for the first quarter of 2014 downward to minus 2.9 percent. (See this slideshow for charts and analysis of the latest GDP revisions.)
Are the opinions of those who responded to the poll reasonable? How do their views stack up against those of professional economists?
What is a “recovery”?
The logical way to start this post would be to cite an official definition of “economic recovery,” but it turns out there isn’t one.  The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is the group that calls the economy’s cyclical turning points, does not use the term “recovery” at all. In the committee’s words, “a recession is a period between a peak and a trough, and an expansion is a period between a trough and a peak.” That leaves no room anywhere for “recovery.”
- See more at: http://www.economonitor.com/dolanecon/2014/06/30/when-will-the-economy-recover-what-does-economic-recovery-mean-anyway-public-and-professional-views/#sthash.PtfTh8YV.dpuf
According to the latest public opinion poll from CNNMoney, 61 percent of Americans think it will take three more years for the U.S. economy to recover fully from the Great Recession. Only 3 percent think that it has already recovered, while 16 percent think it will never recover. And that was before last week’s news from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which revised growth for the first quarter of 2014 downward to minus 2.9 percent. (See this slideshow for charts and analysis of the latest GDP revisions.)
Are the opinions of those who responded to the poll reasonable? How do their views stack up against those of professional economists?
What is a “recovery”?
The logical way to start this post would be to cite an official definition of “economic recovery,” but it turns out there isn’t one.  The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is the group that calls the economy’s cyclical turning points, does not use the term “recovery” at all. In the committee’s words, “a recession is a period between a peak and a trough, and an expansion is a period between a trough and a peak.” That leaves no room anywhere for “recovery.”
- See more at: http://www.economonitor.com/dolanecon/2014/06/30/when-will-the-economy-recover-what-does-economic-recovery-mean-anyway-public-and-professional-views/#sthash.PtfTh8YV.dpuf

No comments:

Post a Comment