Where have all the babies gone? In more than half the
countries in the world, the United States included, women are no longer having enough
children to hold population steady. As a result, we are on the brink of a
dramatic shift from a growing to a declining global population.
To be sure, when we look at the whole long history of
humanity, steady population growth has been anything but the norm. For the
first 100,000 years or so, periods of growth were punctuated by big dips, like
those caused by global cooling following the Toba volcano eruption 70,000
years ago, or the Black Death pandemic of the 14th century. But by
1800, the number of humans on the planet had reached a billion people, and the
next couple of centuries brought us to 8 billion.
Now, seemingly suddenly, the end of population growth is in
sight. Projections vary, but most demographers expect average human fertility to drop
below the replacement rate by mid-century. Once that happens, there will be
only a short lag before population begins a gradual decline stretching into the
indefinite future.
Many observers contemplate the falling population with dread. Elon Musk calls it a “bigger risk to global civilization than global warming.” Others see lower population growth as a boon. So, should we panic, or celebrate? Take a closer look at three issues divide population pessimists from optimists: economics, geopolitics, and quality of life.
