America’s obsession with work has produced a record-low
unemployment rate and the developed world’s shortest vacations. It has also produced a backlash.
A loosely organized movement has emerged that urges its
members to live modestly and work less. One version, known as FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early), is
popular among high-earning young professionals. Adherents aim to save much of
what they earn and retire at 40. However, as financial independence guru Mr. Money Mustache points out, the basic idea of
living within your means and rejecting slavery to work is just as good an idea,
or even a better one, for people with modest incomes.
None of this is new. In a 1928 lecture,
John Maynard Keynes predicted that his grandchildren would live in a world
where people worked fare less than they did in his own time:
We may be on the eve of improvements in the efficiency of food production as great as those which have already taken place in mining, manufacture, and transport. In quite a few years — in in our own lifetimes I mean — we may be able to perform all the operations of agriculture, mining, and manufacture with a quarter of the human effort to which we have been accustomed. . . .
Thus for the first time since his creation man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem — how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure, which science and compound interest will have won for him, to live wisely and agreeably and well. . . .
Three-hour shifts or a fifteen-hour week . . . is quite enough to satisfy the old Adam in most of us!
Paradoxically, it turns out that we are actually ahead of
Keynes’ schedule in terms of productivity, yet we still work only about 20
percent fewer hours per week than they did in the 1920s. Why?
The sense in which Keynes’ prediction was correct
Keynes’ prediction focused largely on the supply and demand
for material goods — “the operations of agriculture, mining, and
manufacture.” The fact is that as a nation, we already average
less than 15 hours a week working in those areas. In that sense, Keynes’
prediction has already come true. Let’s look at some numbers.
In the United States, mining, logging, manufacturing,
construction and farming account for only 19 percent of all hours worked. The
average work week for the labor force as a whole is 33 hours. That means each
working American would have to spend just 6.3 hours a week producing material
goods if the work were spread across the entire labor force.
But wait — isn’t that just because so many of the goods
Americans consume are produced in China and elsewhere? Fair enough. Let’s try
again.
Instead of starting with employment, let’s look at GDP.
Consumer goods (including durable and nondurable, farm and nonfarm, but
excluding services) account for 25 percent of U.S. GDP. That includes
consumption of imported goods, which exceed the value of exported goods by
about 6 percent of GDP. If we suppose that Americans were to produce all goods
consumed in the United States, at an average level of productivity, and at the
same time abandoned production of goods for export, it would still only take 10
hours of the average 33-hour week to meet the demand for consumer goods in
full — well below Keynes’ prediction of three hours a day.
These numbers cast the puzzle of leisure in a different
light. The question is not why we spend so many hours a week producing material
goods that we don’t really need. Instead, the question is, what is important
enough to occupy the other three-quarters of our working hours, rather than
devoting more of them to leisure?
Working to provide government services
A big part of the answer is that many of those hours go to
pay for the services of government. We expect far more of government now than
in Keynes’ day. Government employees account for about 15 percent of all
workers, which, averaged over the whole labor force, comes to about five hours
out of the average workweek.
In fact, since many government services are performed by
private contractors, just counting the hours put in by government employees
understates the amount of time we work to pay for services of government. We
could get a better estimate by looking at a line in the national accounts
called government consumption expenditures and gross investment, which
is equal to 17 percent of GDP. That includes both the salaries of civil
servants and those of government contractors, as well as all of the goods
purchased by government at federal, state, and local levels. If we convert that
to a share of the average workweek, it brings the total to 5.6 hours.
Still another measure of the amount of labor time absorbed
by government would be the number of hours we have to work to pay taxes. Tax
revenues at all levels of government equal about 26 percent of GDP in the
United States, which translates to about 8.6 hours of work per week.
We could, of course, free up more time for leisure if we
accepted a smaller government, but that is not what has happened in the years
since Keynes wrote. Instead, following a tendency sometimes known as Wagner’s
Law, governments in most countries have tended to grow faster than the rest
of the economy. There is abundant evidence that as long as the quality of
government remains high, larger government adds to both our freedom and our
prosperity.
What do we do with the rest of our time?
We have now accounted for about 19 hours of our average
33-hour workweek — 10 to produce goods and 9 to pay for government services.
What do we do with the other 14 hours, rather than enjoying more leisure?
Part of the answer is that we work some of those hours in
order to pay for services that we perceive as necessities and are not provided
by government. In the United States, the largest such item is the part of
health care services paid by households and private employers. That comes to
about 9 percent of GDP, or a little under 3 hours per week. Many families also
view higher education as an expensive necessity. Suppose, for the sake of
discussion, we assume that paying for privately supplied service necessities
requires an average of six hours per week. Adding six to nineteen still leaves
eight hours, or one full working day, that people could devote to leisure if
they chose. Why is that not happening?
What does leisure really mean?
A good starting point is to think more closely about what
leisure means. We spend some of our leisure on purely passive rest and
relaxation, but leisure is more than that. We spend many of our most valued
leisure hours more actively, on sports, making furniture, painting, singing in
a chorus, or playing cards with friends.
Few, if any, of these activities are purely solitary. A
painter might work alone in her studio, but some of her pleasure in painting
comes from other peoples’ enjoyment of what she puts on canvas. The singer
wants someone to listen, the writer wants a reader, and the cooking enthusiast
wants someone with whom to share the meal. Although you can walk on the beach
by yourself, you can’t play basketball alone, and playing bridge with friends
at the local club is more fun than playing alone against the computer.
Looking at these leisure activities from an economist’s
perspective, what we see is an exchange of leisure services:
- John
views and appreciates Maria’s paintings
- Maria
enjoys Howard’s cooking
- Howard
cheers for John’s basketball team, and so on.
Certainly, those are hours well spent. People who work so
much they don’t have time for them are missing out on some of the best things
in life. But, as enjoyable as these activities can be, there are ways to enjoy
them even more that require more labor hours in addition to the time spent in
leisure. For example:
- John
might appreciate Maria’s talented amateur paintings even more, and Maria
might paint even better, if both of them spent some time viewing the works
of professionals in a museum. To do that, they would need to work enough
to buy a ticket, or, if it is a government museum with free admission, to
pay taxes.
- Maybe
Maria and Howard both love to eat, but neither likes to cook, so they
prefer fine dining at a local restaurant even though that means working
more to pay off the resulting credit card balances.
- Very
likely John, as an amateur basketball player, would enjoy the sport even
more if he went to see a professional game now and then, even though that
would mean working enough to buy a ticket.
All of these things are leisure, and all of them involve an
exchange of services, but now the exchange is mediated by, or perhaps we could
say enhanced by, the market. Is that in any way bad? If we had to
depend entirely on art, food, and entertainment produced by amateurs, would we
really be better off? I can’t see that we would.
At some point the line between work and leisure begins to
blur altogether. The above-mentioned Mr. Money Mustache, who advises people to
live within their means and save enough to be able to retire early, does not
insist that people spend their retirement years in idleness. They can continue
working at their old or a new profession if they want, but he advises them to
take on only work that they would be willing to do even if it were unpaid. If
you’re doing something you enjoy, but someone happens to be willing to pay you
for it, is that work, or leisure?
Resolving the puzzle
Here, then, is how I resolve the puzzle posed by Keynes’s
“mistaken” prediction of a 15-hour work week:
- Keynes
was right to think that his grandchildren would be able to satisfy their
demands for the products of manufacturing, mining, construction, and
farming with a 15-hour workweek. In fact, we are already doing better than
that.
- Few
people seriously think that we can make effective use of our enhanced
capacity to create wealth without a government of some kind. If so, we
have to devote some working hours to pay the taxes needed to support it.
- In
addition to working to buy the material necessities of life, we work to
buy necessary services that are not provided in full by government, such
as higher education and medical care.
- By my
calculations, we still appear to work about a day longer every week than
we strictly need to provide all of the above. We spend much of the extra
time earning extra money to spend on market-mediated exchange of leisure
services, like watching professional sports and artistic performances.
I have framed the calculations in this post in terms of the
length of the work week. Viewed that way, if we want more leisure, we should
work shorter days, or take every Friday off to play basketball at the local
gym, or fool around in the kitchen trying a new recipe. Alternatively, we could
take every other Friday off and use the working Fridays to earn money to
indulge in some market-enhanced leisure such as dining out in a good restaurant
or taking a cruise.
But changing the length of our workweek is not the only
option. Instead, we could continue to put in a full standard work-week and add
more vacation time. The United States is, famously, the “No-Vacation
Nation.” A quarter of Americans get no paid vacation or holidays at all,
and the average is just 10 days. Contrast that with the Danes, who get 25 paid
days off a year; the New Zealanders, who get 30; or the famously hard-working
Germans, who get 35. We could also demand more paid sick leave, more parental
leave, and the right to take more unpaid days off if we want them.
Individually, not all of us can bargain with our employers for extra days off
instead of higher wages, but if a majority really wanted them, we could get
them through collective bargaining, or through political action.
Still another option would be to join the FIRE movement,
live frugally, and retire at 40, 50, or 60, rather than never retiring, as an increasing number of Americans seem
to be doing. Having the option of retiring early might call for some policy
changes, such as health insurance that is not linked to our jobs. But again, if
that is what we really want we can put pressure on markets and governments to
deliver it.
Any of these patterns — shorter workweeks, longer vacations,
earlier retirement — could mean a step toward “living wisely and agreeably and
well,” to use Keynes’ phrase. We should celebrate the fact that rising
productivity has made it possible for any of us, even those of us who are not
hot-shot young professionals with the resources to retire at 40, to take at
least some small steps toward working less and enjoying more leisure, if that
is what we want to do.
Still, many people — here I am talking about people who have
left the threat of absolute poverty far behind — have chosen to keep right on
working in order to live in larger houses and drive fancier cars to work in the
morning. That is their right. Perhaps the determination with which they
exercise that right to work is what would surprise Keynes most of all.
Previously posted on Medium
Great post. You explain these things so well. We strive; and sharpening the saw (to use Covey's term) takes time.
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